05/09/2019 – USDA: Long-term projections to 2028/29 — auf Deutsch lesen
Cotton imports stay on the rise in China and Vietnam
Global cotton consumption is projected to increase by almost 25 percent from 2018/19 through 2028/29.
China and India increase consumption the most by 44 percent and 20.5 percent through 2028/29. The next five largest countries increasing consumption are Vietnam, Bangladesh, Turkey, Pakistan, and Brazil.
Cotton trade increases constantly
By 2028/29 the cotton trade reaches 13.5 m tonnes, surpassing the record of 46.3 b bales set in 2012/13. As China completes its disposal of surplus stocks, the country’s cotton imports are projected to increase, reaching 4.3 m tonnes by the end of the projection period. Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan are the next largest cotton-importing countries and are also projected to increase imports.
A rebound in China’s cotton imports is expected to drive growth in world cotton trade, as volume rises at a 4 percent annual growth rate between 2019/20 and 2028/29. World cotton trade rises with the completion of China’s disposal of its large reserve stocks, prompting a resumption of large imports there. China’s cotton imports are expected to expand 9 percent per year during the projection period with stronger growth in the first half of the projection period. China increases imports by about 2.4 m tonnes with imports at 4.3 m tonnes in 2028/29. While China’s cotton use is expected to increase, shifts in textile production to Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan will restrain China’s growth.
Vietnam is projected to be the second-largest importer in 2020/21 as its textile industry grows rapidly, with imports reaching 2.8 m tonnes by 2028/29. Vietnam’s cotton imports increased more than six-fold over the past 12 years and are projected to account for 25 percent of the world’s increased imports to 2028/29. Vietnam’s textile sector and cotton imports are expected to grow 5.1 percent annually through 2028/29.
Bangladesh became the world’s largest cotton importer in 2015/16, but is projected to be surpassed once again by China in 2019/20 and then by Vietnam in 2020/21. Indonesia’s cotton imports increase and surpass Turkey’s import level in 2018/19. Indonesia becomes the fourth largest cotton importer throughout the projection period. Indonesia projected imports grow at 1 percent annually reaching 900,000 tonnes by 2028/29. Turkey’s share of world consumption has weakened recently, but imports are expected to increase slightly through the projection period to 800,000 tonnes by 2028/29.
Pakistan’s cotton imports and exports are both projected to slightly increase by 2028/29. Mexico, EU, Thailand, Taiwan, FSU, South Korea, and Japan, all decrease imports slightly throughout the projection period, with a combined decrease of 220,000 tonnes by 2028/29.
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028