20/09/2019 – USDA long-term projections to 2028/29 — auf Deutsch lesen
Good prospects for cotton exporters Brazil, Sub-Saharan Africa, and India
Raw cotton production is expected to continue moving to countries with favorable resource endowments and advancing production technologies.
Expanded cotton output is projected for traditional producers with large amounts of land suitable for cotton production, including Brazil, Sub-Saharan Africa, and India.
The U.S. share of world cotton production has declined from the early 2000s (20 percent) with the spread of new technology around the world; however, throughout most of the baseline period, the U.S. share is expected to remain fairly stable (15 percent). The United States remains the world’s leading cotton exporter, increasing exports marginally (0.9 percent annually) to 4.03 m tonnes by 2028/29. However, the U.S. share of world cotton trade falls to 30 percent by 2028/29, compared with 40 percent in 2016/17.
Area planted to cotton in Brazil is projected to expand in Bahia and Mato Grosso regions with continuing yield growth as well. Brazil’s cotton exports are projected to increase by 1.92 m tonnes by 2028/29, corresponding to a 10.5-percent annual growth rate, the largest projected growth rate among the world’s major exporters. Brazil became the world’s second-ranking cotton exporter in 2018/19 and remains second through the projection period.
India’s cotton exports grow by 4.5 percent annually, reaching 1.46 m tonnes in 2028/29. Improved yields in India raised India’s production and exports, although bollworm resistance issues have hampered yields in recent years. Projected yield growth in India reflects continuing improvement in cultivation practices and stabilization of insect problems. India became the third largest exporter in 2018/19 as Brazil exports surpassed India’s. India is expected to remain the world’s third-largest cotton exporter behind the United States and Brazil.
Exports from the 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States are projected to experience sustained 4 percent annual growth in the next decade. Improvements in technical and financial infrastructure will help boost production and exports. Exports from the other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to increase 2.7 percent annually. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to add 570.000 tonnes to trade and account for 14.5 percent of world trade over the projection period.
Government policies in the major cotton-producing countries in Central Asia are promoting investment in textile industries and contributing to exports of textile products rather than exports of raw cotton. Exports rebound slightly during the first half of the projection before declining. FSU exports (entirely from Central Asia) increase 0.5 percent annually, with only 540.000 tonnes exported by 2028/29, which is far below the peak exports of 1.59 m tonnes in 2005/06.
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028