19/10/2018 – Projections to 2027 — auf Deutsch lesen
Projections to 2027
World economic growth is projected to increase over the next decade.
With a market exchange rate-weighted average annual GDP growth rate of 2.9 percent from 2018 through 2027. The fastest projected growing economies are in Asia, with India, Vietnam and Cambodia growing at annual rates of 7.6 percent, 6.0 percent, and 6.3 percent, respectively. Southeast Asia’s GDP will rise an average of 4.6 percent annually. China’s projected economic growth rate is 5.5 percent. The Middle East and Africa are both projected to grow at 3.5 percent.
Global Cotton Imports
China’s cotton imports are expected to increase throughout the next decade with stronger growth in the first half of the projection period. China’s cotton use is expected to grow, but shifts in textile production to Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, and Pakistan will restrain China’s growth.
Vietnam is projected to be the second-largest importer in 2022/23 as its textile industry grows rapidly. Bangladesh, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan are expected to be the third-, fourth-, fifth- and sixth-largest cotton importers by 2027/28. Mexico, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the EU and FSU all decrease imports slightly throughout the projection period, with a combined decrease of 1.35 million bales by 2027/28.
Global Cotton Exports
Raw cotton production is expected to continue moving to countries with favorable resource endowments and advancing production technologies. Even with production lower than historical levels, the United States remains the world’s leading cotton exporter. However, the U.S. share of world cotton trade falls to 27 percent by 2027/28, compared with 40 percent in 2016/17. India’s cotton exports grow by 5.9 percent annually, reaching 8.7 million bales in 2027/28 India is expected to remain the world’s second-largest cotton exporter behind the United States.
With 7.2 percent, the largest projected growth rate among the world’s exporters, Brazil remains the world’s third-ranking cotton exporter throughout the projection period*. Exports from the 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States are projected to experience sustained growth in the next decade in total, and account for 16 percent of world trade over the projection period.
Government policies in the major cotton-producing countries in the Central Asian FSU countries are promoting investment in textile industries and contributing to exports of textile products rather than exports of raw cotton.
* Statistics from ICAC deviate in this point.
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2027
Source: Bremen Cotton Report 31/32- August 16, 2018.
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