In its July estimate for the 2019/20 season, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has increased its cotton crop estimate by 320,000 tonnes to 6.03 million tonnes compared to its previous estimate of 5.7 million tonnes made during the last month.

Domestic consumption now estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year up to 30th September 2020 is 4.25 million tonnes. There is a reduction of 510,000 tonnes in the consumption estimate made now compared to that estimated earlier due to the lower consumption of cotton on account of disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the labour shortage resulting therefrom. Closing stocks at the end of the season are estimated at 1.75 million tonnes.

Forecast 2020/21

In the upcoming season 2020/21, the USDA forecasts harvested area to reach near-record levels at 13.2 million hectares, but down nearly 1 percent from the record area in 2019. Planting was boosted by the timely monsoon, availability of farm labor despite Covid-19 restrictions, and favorable minimum support prices (MSP) compared to other crops. Yields are forecast to reach 490 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down nearly 2 percent from 2019 as farmers expand to lower-yielding non-irrigated areas. The USDA forecasts production at 6.47 million tonnes. The ICAC estimates an Indian production of 6.2 million tonnes on 12.64 million hectares.

Sources: Cotton Association of India; USDA/FAS World Agricultural Production, August 2020, ICAC, Cotton this Month August 2020

Bremen Cotton Report No. 33/34 – August 27, 2020