World ending stocks are projected to decrease by one percent to 18 mn tonnes by the end of the 2019/20 season, which would represent approximately 2/3’s of the world consumption this season. This reduction of world ending stocks represents a fifth consecutive season of decline from the historic high of the 2014/15 season.

The balance of stocks held by China and outside of China is expected to continue with a 5.5 percent reduction of Chinese ending stocks to 8.4 mn tonnes and a three percent increase of ending stocks held by all other countries to 9.6 mn tonnes. The global reduction in stocks is expected to be driven by current estimate for steady global consumption amidst a slight one percent increase in global production.

Ongoing trade uncertainties and concerns for economic growth continue to influence the global cotton trade and textile demand. The Covid-19 outbreak in China has provided additional uncertainty to markets as manufacturing and supply chains in Asia have slowed.

Although the further impact of the novel coronavirus remains unknown, the potential for wider global economic slowdown continues to provide additional stress to the sector. Cotton prices have come under pressure, but current projections for global consumption in 2019/20 remain at 26.2 mn tonnes, while production is currently projected at 26 mn tonnes.

Source: ICAC Cotton this Month, March 02, 2020

Bremen Cotton Report 11-12 of the Bremen Cotton Exchange