Leading data and analytics company GlobalData lists several global companies that have had their business disrupted by the conflict due to their presence in these two countries.

Impact on economy and business sentiment

Kadempally Abhinay Goud, Business Fundamentals Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Businesses should not expect a quick return to normal. From closures to the suspension of potential investments and ongoing projects such as the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, disruption is rife, and will take some time to untangle. According to GlobalData’s Sentiments database, which indicates how positively or negatively companies are ‘talking about’ various markets in their company filings, overall business sentiment towards ‘Ukraine’ declined by around a third in Q1 2022, compared to Q1 2021 – showcasing deep-set uncertainty. Meanwhile, sentiment towards ‘Russia’ declined by approximately 18%. Further, in the backdrop of ongoing conflict and other factors, GlobalData’s estimations for East Europe’s real GDP growth has been revised downward by 5.1 percentage points in March 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia are forecast to contract by around 10% in 2022. An economic outlook such as this will play a major role in company’s business decisions.”

Impact on automotive

Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Volvo Cars, Ford, Jaguar-Land Rover, General Motors, BMW, Daimler Trucks, AB Volvo Trucks and motorcycle maker Harley Davidson have all ceased export operations to Russia, with Ford confirming that it had suspended its Ford-Sollers Russian joint venture effective immediately in response to the invasion.

Bakar Sadik Agwan, Automotive Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Automotive players worldwide have responded to Russian aggression with condemnation and actions that will isolate the country further. Renault remains one of the most exposed OEM to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, having five production locations and total capacity of 1.5 million units idle. GlobalData’s light vehicle production disruption tracker estimates a production volume impact of 81,100 units for Renault. Further, AvtoVAZ, the parent to Russia’s leading auto company, Lada, is approximately 68% owned by Groupe Renault. The Russian partner could face significant difficulties if its French associate was to pull out.”

Impact on apparel

Inditex, H&M, IKEA, Nike, Puma, Prada, Levi Strauss & Co have suspended their operations in Russia.

Darcey Jupp, Apparel Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The vast majority of the top apparel companies have now suspended either all or part of their operations in Russia following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, which will be particularly damaging to the Russian apparel market. Most companies were motivated to withdraw by operational issues, rather than ethical reasons, as they struggled to guarantee stock deliveries both instore and to their customers making online purchases. While Russia may account for a small proportion of sales for some of the top global apparel companies, Inditex is bracing itself to be hit hard, after announcing in its latest trading update that the Russian market previously comprised around 8.5% of its operating profit. However, its promising recent performance driven by high demand from its young consumer base suggests damages could be largely alleviated by strong performance in other regions.”