Upland at 3.8 m t and extra-long staple at 170,000 t, 12 percent below the 2017 crop but the second highest since 2007/08. USDA will release the final U.S. cotton production estimate for the 2018 crop on May 10. Based on the current crop estimate and beginning stocks of 940,000 t, the 2018/19 cotton supply is projected at 22.7 m bales, 4 percent below last season but the second highest in a decade. In March, 2018/19 U.S. cotton demand is projected at 4.9 m t, below last season but similar to 2016/17. While U.S. cotton mill use is estimated at 700,000 m t – down slightly from 2017/18 – exports are forecast 5 percent below 2017/18 shipments at 3.3 m bales.

What are the causes?

U.S. cotton exports are projected lower in 2018/19 due to a number of factors, including a reduced U.S. supply, increased competition from Brazil, and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations. As a result, the U.S. share of global trade is forecast to decrease to about 36 percent – below the last two seasons but above the preceding 5 years. U.S. cotton export commitments through the first seven months of 2018/19 reached 2.8 m t, compared with 3.2 m t for the same period last season.

U.S. domestic cotton consumption (mill use plus net textile imports) increased 4 percent in calendar 2018 as consumer demand for cotton products reached its highest in eight years. Retail consumption was estimated at nearly 4 m t for the year.

Source: USDA Cotton and Wool Outlook, March 2019

Excerpt from the Bremen Cotton Report No. 11/12

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