21/11/2022 – Cotton forecast — auf Deutsch lesen
Global cotton trade and stocks increase in 2022/23
World cotton trade for 2022/23 was cut this month by 218,000 tonnes to a projected 9.5 million tonnes but is still forecast to increase 146,000 tonnes (1.6 percent) above last season’s level.
For the major producing countries, 2022/23 stock changes are forecast to vary considerably. Stocks in China are projected to increase marginally. In contrast in India, they are projected to increase considerably, similarly in Brazil. © Bremer Baumwollbörse
U.S. cotton exports are at 2.7 million tonnes in 2022/23, down 457,000 tonnes or 14.5% from 2021/22, given the reduced crop. For India, this season’s cotton exports are projected to reach 762,000 tonnes, down from 806,000 tonnes in 2021/22. On the other hand, cotton exports for Brazil in 2022/23 are expected to increase 146,000 tonnes (9%) to 1.8 million tonnes, while Australia’s exports are expected to increase 544,000 tonnes (65%) year-to-year to a record 1.3 million tonnes in 2022/23. With global mill use declining this season, China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam are projected as the leading raw cotton importers in 2022/23. Imports by China are forecast at 1.9 million tonnes this season, up from 1.7 million in 2021/22. For Bangladesh, 2022/23 imports are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes (up 44,000 tonnes), and for Vietnam at 1.5 million tonnes (up 37,000 tonnes).
Based on the latest cotton supply and demand projections, world ending stocks are forecast at 19.1 million tonnes in 2022/23 (+3% resp, 566,000 tonnes).
Source: USDA/ERS, Cotton and Wool Outlook, October 2022
Bremen Cotton Exchange – Issue 43-44/2022, Bremen Cotton Report
